AlibomicsMoney and Economics
CONCEPT LESSON

Projection bias

Overestimating how closely future preferences will resemble how you feel now.

Why it matters

A purchase made today serves a future situation. Thinking about that situation can reveal a mismatch between present feelings and later needs.

A worked example

Shopping while hungry, you buy meals assuming you will want the same amount later, even when you are full.

Illustrative example · simplified assumptions

A common mistake

Assuming your present appetite is a reliable forecast of next week.

Where the idea needs care

Preferences can change. Pause and consider the circumstances in which you will actually use a purchase.

Apply the idea

Explain this concept using a different example from your spending, work, business or a policy debate. State what stays fixed and what could change the result.

CHECK YOUR UNDERSTANDING
What does projection bias overstate?

Read the answer and explanation

Similarity between current and future preferences. Preferences can change. Pause and consider the circumstances in which you will actually use a purchase.

See the supporting infographicProjection bias: Overestimating how closely future preferences will resemble how you feel now.

The written explanation above is the main lesson. This image offers another way to remember it.

Sources and further study

Examples and explanations by Alibomics. Numeric illustrations are not current market quotations.