Today is not always a good forecast
You shop while hungry and imagine wanting the same generous meals all week. Later, with a different appetite, those purchases no longer fit. Projection bias describes overestimating how much future preferences will resemble current ones.
Change the question
Instead of asking only “Do I want this now?”, ask “When will I use this, and how might I feel then?” A list prepared in a different state can provide another reference point, though no technique guarantees a better decision.
Context matters
Changing preferences are not inherently a mistake. The issue is insufficiently allowing for the change when deciding now. This is an illustrative shopping example, not a claim about every shopper.
Read the visual lesson. Further reading: Loewenstein, O’Donoghue and Rabin on projection bias.
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